The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES) at The University of Texas at Austin has received $17 million from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to develop computer modeling techniques that can provide more reliable predictions of complex systems, such as re-entry of vehicles from space into Earth's atmosphere.
The Center for Predictive Engineering and Computational Sciences (PECOS), a research unit within ICES, will receive the funds for the project over five years. The university will contribute another $1.7 million to it.
Dr. Robert Moser, professor in Mechanical Engineering and ICES, is the director of PECOS. The lead co-investigators are Dr. J. Tinsley Oden, director of ICES, and Dr. Omar Ghattas, professor in ICES, Mechanical Engineering and the Jackson School of Geosciences.
About a dozen university faculty members from ICES, Mechanical Engineering and Aerospace Engineering are involved. Moser said the PECOS team will work with partners at NNSA, NASA, Texas A&M University and Florida State University.
Predictive science is the application of verified and validated computational simulations to predict the response of complex systems where routine experimental tests are not feasible. A critical part of predictive science is the quantification of uncertainties. It is important to know how reliable the results of the computer simulations are.
The University of Texas at Austin researchers will focus on the problem of uncertainty quantification as it applies to the re-entry of vehicles from space into Earth's atmosphere.
"We're trying to come up with a computer prediction that says not only what the best estimate of the answer is, but what is the level of uncertainty in the answer," Moser said. "So you want to be able to say to the decision maker, 'Well, according to this calculation, there's a 5 percent chance of failure if we re-enter in these conditions.' "
Since the 1992 moratorium on underground nuclear testing, the NNSA has used simulation and modeling tools and capabilities to support assessment and certification of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. The research results from the PECOS center can be applied across many areas with which the NNSA is concerned, Moser said.
The University of Texas is one of five universities designated as a center of excellence by the NNSA. The others are the California Institute of Technology, the University of Michigan, Purdue University and Stanford University.
