Modeling COVID-19: New Forecasts Explore Coronavirus Predictions, Medical Logistics and the Future of Transportation

Where Should Key Resources Go?

Limited resources, from protective equipment for medical personnel to testing supplies, has been a challenge as local, state and federal officials respond to the impact of coronavirus. Erhan Kutanoglu, an associate professor in the Cockrell School’s Operations Research and Industrial Engineering Graduate Program is pivoting his model for making logistical decisions for hurricanes to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The hurricane model focuses on the creation of staging areas and using existing hospitals out of the way of a storm and the logistics of getting patients from hospitals and nursing homes to safe sites. Coronavirus is a moving target with infection curves constantly changing over time — rising, peaking and falling, simultaneously, in different cities and states. That makes it even harder to allocate resources. Kutanoglu’s model will consider the changing nature of the infection curves over time and region into account and match the resources, hospital beds, ventilators, personnel, etc. with demand created by the infection curves. His model will produce recommendations about when and where to put temporary medical facilities, proper staffing, capacity and necessary medical supplies.

“Hopefully, with the knowledge we have gathered in solving such patterns for hurricane preparation, we can quickly do the same for pandemic preparation,” Kutanoglu said.